Russia's main maritime thrust in the 2050 timeframe

Most countries are aiming for the 2020-2025 timeframe to complete the modernization and expansion of their navies. By 2020 the UK is expected to have a carrier strike force again while the US and China will have made further steps in modernizing their carrier wings. Likewise India and other Asian countries are also planning for the 2020-2025 timeframe but this is more in order to keep pace with the Chinese Navy. One major power is however planning for the 2050 timeframe and that is Russia.

Russia’s 2050 timeframe is easy to explain. Since the fall of the Soviet Union the Russian Federation has been struggling to create a major economy that can sustain a large naval force. Russia is further hampered by the fact that it needs 5 fleets: The Northern, Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific fleet and the Caspian sea flotilla. Given the current development of the Russian economy and the state of its shipyards both in size, location and know how Russia will first need to expand its shipyards, modernize them and find the necessary know how to start building modern ships. This is further complicated by the fact that Russia until recently had to import engines from the Ukraine. With the current situation between Russia and the Ukraine this vital source of equipment is no longer available. Although Russia can build modern corvettes and frigates, it is incapable of building anything bigger like destroyers and cruisers without the necessary know how.

Russia will first need a large period of investments, both in its general economy and its shipyards, before it can start to build new modern fleets. This is why Russia looks at the 2050 timeframe.

Russia's geography demands that each fleet can operate independent
as other fleets can not shift fast enough to support another fleet

 Given the current evolution of the balance of power the Pacific will not be a favorite area for the Russians to deploy a fleet. Russia will be incapable of building up a fleet powerful enough to equal China and the Unites States who will be the primary actors in this area. Still, Russia will be an important player in this area and will have the need to deploy a substantial naval force to project its power. Russia’s main adversary will be Japan as both nations have a dispute over the Kuril islands that Russia has occupied since the end of World War 2. As long as Russia controls the Kuril Islands it has a free acces route into he Pacific Ocean. In Japanese hands, these islands can be used to hamper or blockade Russian attempts to sail undetected into the Pacific Ocean.

The Kuril Islands: A blockade for the Pacific Fleet when in Japanese hands

Japan already operates a larger and more modern fleet than Russia’s Pacific fleet but Japan also needs to face the Chinese Navy. As such, a small fleet capable of effectively deterring the Japanese from retaking the Kurile islands will be in all what Russia will be looking for. Of course the Pacific is an ideal place for Russia to deploy its SSBNs. Operating out of Kamchatka, Russian submarines can mount a nuclear deterrence against both China and the US. This nuclear strike capability will make Russia a recognized partner to deal with concerning major political topics in the Pacific.

The Caspian Sea is a vital area for Russia’s economy that is mainly centered on energy. Russia seeks to maintain the status quo that currently exists in the Caspian Sea, with Russia being the main naval power. As such it will monitor the navies of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran closely. In the past years a large modernization of the Caspian Sea Flotilla has happened to secure Russia’s position as well as to counter the Iranian naval build up in the Caspian Sea.

The same situation will exist in the Baltic Sea where Russia will maintain a presence large enough to deter the naval forces of the European Union and NATO to use the Baltic Sea freely in case of a conflict. The easy access of the Baltic Sea with the Atlantic Ocean will make the Baltic fleet important to venture out and support either the Northern or Black Sea fleet or to operate on the Atlantic Ocean. Some of the modern Russian shipyards are located either in Saint-Petersburg and Kaliningrad. Thus the Baltic Sea is currently a very important area strategically as it is Russia’s only area, apart from the Northern fleet shipyards, to construct the modern ships the Russian navy so desperately needs. Although the Baltic Sea is a very important area today, in a 2050 timeframe it will lose some of its relevance as other areas will also have modern shipyards.

The Northern Fleet is the most important of all fleets as it has access to the Atlantic. The shipyard in Severodvinsk is the only one capable of building and maintaining aircraft carriers as well as nuclear submarines. The importance of the Northern Fleet will only increase with the melting of the polar caps and the large amount of minerals, oil and gas that will be available for extraction from the Arctic seabed. At the same time new trade routes will open up, connecting the Atlantic with the Pacific Ocean. As all Arctic nations are presenting claims of large area’s to be put in their economic zones it will also become an area of strong militarization. Russia is already in the lead as it has the biggest fleet in the Arctic and is opening new bases to expand its military presence. The melting of the polar caps will also allow the Northern fleet to effectively support the Russian forces in the Pacific by transiting through the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska.

Current claims of  Arctic states

With the most important shipyards centered around Severodvinsk, the Northern fleet has direct access to repair and modernization facilities and can be easily reinforced with new modern ships. The Sevmash shipyard is also named as the only Russian shipyard currently capable of building a nuclear aircraft carrier that the Russian navy will need in order to project power on a global scale.

Perhaps equally important as the Northern Fleet is Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Operating mainly out of the Crimean city of Sevastopol it is the only fleet that operates in a warm water port and with fast access to the Mediterranean, African coastal nations and the Middle East. As Russia seeks to project its power it finds many states that have good relations with Russia in both Africa and the Middle East. As such, the Black Sea Fleet is currently the most important fleet in Russia’s inventory as it can project power in Africa and the Middle east. As such, Russia is currently seeking to expand this fleet into its most important fleet and is seeking oversea bases within the Mediterranean. So far, Russia only has basing rights in the Syrian ports of Latakia and Tartus and this explains Russia’s mayor role in supporting the Assad-regime. At the same time, Russia is looking for partners aside from Syria. The Russian fleet is planning to conduct amphibious exercises with Eritrea in October. Eritrea used to provide naval bases for the Soviet navy during the Cold War and renewing the ties between Russia and Eritra might allow the Russians to project power into the Red Sea.

With the capture of Sevastopol from Ukraine earlier in 2014, Russia can now station as many ships as it wants in Sevastopol. With Russia also having access to the Sevastopol shipyard it is now capable of building and repairing ships from the Black Sea Fleet without sending them to the Baltic Sea or to Severodvinsk. Further development of the naval facilities in Sevastopol will allow Russia to operate a fleet independent from other areas.

Conclusion

At the moment Russia’s main fleet is the Black Sea Fleet. Its access to the Mediterranean, Africa and the Middle East make it play a vital role in Russia’s foreign policy in projecting Russian power. This fleet will remain to be the most important fleet for the Russians in the next years as Russia seeks to expand its Black Sea Fleet and create a permanent naval task force in the Mediterranean.

The Baltic and Caspian fleets play a smaller role and Russia will strive to just maintain a status quo with its neighbours in these areas. At the same time Russia cannot hope to close the existing gap with China and the United States and has to play a secondary role in the Pacific. Its main rival will be Japan as both countries are claiming the Kurile islands, currently under Russian control. Building a force big enough to deter Japan, who also has to face the Chinese navy, will be sufficient in the future.

Russia’s main fleet for the 2050 timeframe is the Northern Fleet as Russia seeks to claim as much of the Arctic Sea as possible and is already militarizing the region. With access to both the Actic, Atlantic and Pacific oceans this Northern Fleet will form a strategic force that can be shifted to areas where a large Russian naval force will be required. As the Sevmash shipyard in Severodvinsk is the only shipyard in Russia capable of building and maintaining aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. It is for the moment also the only place where Russia can start building nuclear aircraft carriers in the future.

Brazil’s maritime influence in Africa and its consequences for the EU

In the past decade, Brazil has been working to improve its maritime relations with West-African countries. Brazil’s aim is to make the South Atlantic Ocean its sphere of influence. As such, it is reaching out to the African countries on the South Atlantic Ocean. By creating what Brazil describes as a “Belt of good will” across the South Atlantic it hopes to create a common defense of the region and a fortification of its international presence.

Brazil has the advantage that it is the largest maritime power in the South Atlantic. This area was of little importance for NATO and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and as such Brazil stepped in to become the leading nation in this region. What is significant is that Brazil has been reaching out across the Ocean towards Africa and not only to Portuguese speaking countries like Angola. In the past decade, Brazil has been signing bilateral military co-operation programs with South-Africa, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, Angola, Nigeria and Senegal.



The Lusophone countries: Portuguese speaking nations
are mainly seperated by the Atlantic

The military programs often focus on joint training exercises and exchange programs. Lately however there is also an increase in the export of Brazilian made weaponry to Africa. As a direct result of this military co-operation Brazil’s influence in Africa have been on the rise both politically and economically. The amount of African embassies in Brazil as well as Brazilian embassies in Africa has been rising and economic trade between Brazil and Africa has increased six fold since 2000 to USD 27 billion in 2012.

Brazil’s influence in western Africa is potential bad news for the European Union (EU). Several of its member states are having a new focus on Africa and are starting to develop their own military partnership programs with African countries. Each of these member states might find out that they are being pushed back into a secondary position as Brazil keeps fortifying its leading role in Africa. Brazil’s three Amazonas-class offshore patrol vessels all had their maiden voyages towards west Africa where they participated in anti-piracy exercises with Cape Verde, Benin, Nigeria, Angola, Mauritania, Ghana, Cameroon and São Tome and Principe The focus of each of these exercises is on combating illegal activities such as piracy, illegal fishing, drug trafficking and smuggling. These topics are also the main focus of many military co-operation programs that EU members are offering to African countries.

At the same time Brazil is in a better position to sell weapons systems to African countries. As Brazilian weapons are less expensive and less sophisticated then their European counterparts, they are a prime choice for African armies and navies. This places the EU at a disadvantage in providing African countries with the weapons they want as Brazil can in most cases offer better deals.

As Brazil keeps fortifying its position as a leading nation in the South Atlantic Ocean it reaches out to west African countries. What started as bilateral military programs allowed Brazil to increase both its political and economic influence in Africa. This puts Brazil opposite of the EU as some of its member states are planning to get more involved in Africa and are planning to have their own co-operation programs. As Brazil is capable of offering training programs and weapon systems against a lower cost it can outmaneuver the EU. As such, Brazil’s geopolitical rise and subsequent power projection are, unintentionally, a threat to the EU who will see its influence in Africa diminished.

A possible aircraft for China's future carriers

If China is planning to build nuclear aircraft carriers using the CATOBAR system, then it would be in need of a new carrier based aircraft. China’s current carrier based aircraft lack the structural integrity to survive the forces generated by a catapult launch. As we stated earlier, the development of an aircraft carrier using the CATOBAR  system by China would be unlikely unless it simultaneously develops a more robust aircraft.

 

The J-31 is China’s fifth generation aircraft. Photos and videos of the aircraft began to emerge in June 2012. It is a twin engine mid-weight aircraft designed for medium to low altitude missions such as air interdiction and aerial bombardment in contrast to its predecessor, the J-20, which is a high altitude fighter. In December 2013 it was reported that the J-31 would be redesigned to have ground attack capabilities.

 

J-31 aircraft

Although the J-31 is an evolution of the J-20 it is unclear if the J-31 will replace the J-20. When comparing the missions for which both planes are designed they seem to complement each other. This could mean that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), the Chinese air force, could operate both planes in the future. Several news reports by China in September 2013 state that the J-31 is designed for export to offer a low cost alternative to the US F-35 aircraft. With little real information known about China’s weapon programs it is hard to judge if the J-31 will indeed be an export aircraft to compete against the F-35 or see actual service in the Chinese armed forces.

 

Several sources mentioned that China might use the J-31 to serve on board of a nuclear carrier. The J-31’s chief designer, Sun Cong, has said that he hoped that the aircraft would follow his J-15 onto China’s aircraft carriers. The J-31 was however developed for the PLAAF. There are no indications that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) was involved in its design. The J-31 is smaller then the J-20 and more robust. It also shares several similarities with the F-35C, the new aircraft for US Navy aircraft carriers and the British Royal Navy. The twin forward wheels are a feature that is mainly found on carrier based aircraft.

 

J-31 during test flights

Conclusion

Although the J-31 was developed for the PLAAF, and not for PLAN, the question remains if the J-31 is a suitable plane for China’s future aircraft carriers. Several questions need a definitive answer. Does China intend to use the J-31 in its armed forces or is it indeed an export aircraft only? And if used by the PLAAF, will the PLAN decide to convert the J-31 so that it can be used on board of its carriers?

 

No matter what the answers are to these questions, the J-31 is not only a step forward in Chinese aircraft design, it is also a step in the direction of building a modern aircraft that can be used on aircraft carriers using the CATOBAR design. Until China develops another aircraft suitable for this task, the J-31 is an aircraft that is worth to be followed up on in order to know what direction China’s aircraft carrier development program is going.

The latest developments in China’s nuclear submarine fleet

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has been focusing on diesel-electric submarines in the past years. This made sense as China focused on the area between its coast and the first island chain. Operating close to the coast, diesel-electric submarines have an advantage over nuclear powered submarines. They are more silent then nuclear submarines and since they don’t have to maneuver a lot in coastal waters they can remain silent and in ambush. For China it made sense to focus on diesel-electric submarines. But as the PLAN becomes bigger and transforms into a blue water navy the need arises to project power at greater distances. As diesel-electric submarines lack the range to support a blue water navy, the PLAN has taken a renewed interest in its nuclear submarine fleet.

Attack submarines

China currently has two types of nuclear attack submarines, the Type 091 Han class and the Type 093 Shang class. The Type 091 submarines of the Han class are very old boats. The first one was commissioned in 1974 while the fifth and last one was commissioned in 1990. Only the last 3 boats are still in service. The noise level of the Han class is so loud that these boats are easily detected. They have no combat value and can only be regarded as being used for training purposes.

The Type 093 Shang class submarines were a next step in Chinese nuclear submarine development. Construction started in the 1990s but the first boats were only delivered a decade later. Even though the Shang class is an improvement over the Han class it is still a noisy and easy detectible submarine. Its noise level corresponds to that of a Soviet Victor III class although some experts, mainly Chinese, state that the Type 093 submarine could be as quiet as a Los Angeles class submarine.

Type 093 Shang class submarine

Specific details about Chinese submarines are scarce and this is also true for their nuclear submarines. Nobody can really tell when exactly the PLAN has commissioned its Type 093 boats (and for that matter also its SSBM, see below). It is generally assumed that the PLAN operates only two Type 093 submarines. However, China also plans to build four new Type 093 submarines and commission them in the next five years. Vertical Launch Systems (VLS) will be installed in these improved type 093 submarines, making them more versatile. If true, an improved Type 093 submarine would be comparable to a US Los Angeles class submarine that also has VLS. The improved Type 093 submarines would be capable of launching cruise missiles at both land and sea targets. The six Type 093 boats will replace the remaining Type 091 submarines.

The next development in Chinese submarine design is the Type 095 submarine. Almost no details exist on this project. Some rumors say that they are being built, others state that they aren’t even designed. Whatever the truth, China will develop a Type 095 submarine in the near future. The improved Type 093 class shows that China still keeps modernizing its submarine force. With their VLS, the Type 093 will be a testing model before China makes a new step in submarine development. This is not a strange move as the PLAN did it with every type of ship. It is custom for China to build a couple ships, test them and then develop a new upgraded design until it finally has a perfect working ship.

 

The Type 095 submarine is expected to be louder than an Akula I class according to the 2009 ONI Report. If the Type 093 however has the acoustic characteristics of a Los Angeles class submarine then the ONI prediction would be wrong as the type 095 is expected to be a lot more silent then the Type 093. The Type 095 will receive a VLS as it makes the boat more versatile and thus a more lethal adversary.

Ballistic missile submarines

Ballistic missile submarines (SSBN’s) are equipped with nuclear armed ballistic missiles. Although these boats have torpedo’s with them, they are not designed to attack other submarines. Their mission is to remain hidden under the water until the moment to launch either a surprise first strike or a retaliatory second strike. China’s nuclear policy is one of no first use and their SSBN’s are thus used for launching a retaliatory second strike, in theory. As such, China would seek only to build so many boats as are needed to build a credible deterrent.

China’s history with building and operating SSBN’s is a very troubled one. The first class of SSBN was the Type 092 Xia class submarine. Only one boat of this class was build, the Xia. Laid down in1978, she was completed in 1981 and launched her first missiles as a test in 1987. The Xia has been plagued by many troubles and spent most of her time either being refitted or repaired. It is believed that she never sailed on an active combat patrol beyond China’s regional waters.

The successor to the Type 092 was the Type 094 Jin class submarine. This class resembles a Russian Delta class submarine. The 2009 ONI report states that this class of submarines is noisier than a Russian Delta III class SSBN. The exact numbers of submarines in service are unknown but experts think that there are three to five of these submarines in service. Most of them operate from the naval base on the island of Hainan where the submarines have rapid access to deep waters. The Type 094 submarine is also equipped with the JL-2 missile that has a greater range compared to the missiles deployed in its predecessor, the Xia class.

 

Type 094 Jin class submarine

 

The next evolution in SSBN design is the Type 096 Tang class submarine. Little has been known about this class but its hull will look more like a western SSBN than a Delta class submarine. The amount of missiles will be increased to 24 missiles compared to the 12 on board of the Type 094 class. Construction of this class was reported in the western press halfway the year 2013 and the first boat should be ready somewhere in 2014. As is usually the case concerning Chinese military programs, little news comes out and most information is just speculation. The Type 094 class took longer to be commissioned than was initially reported and this might well be the case with the Type 096 class.

 

Possible model of the Type 096 Tang class

Concept art of a Type 096 Tang class submarine

Conclusion

In the past China’s nuclear submarine fleet got little attention. The PLAN focused on modernizing its diesel-electric submarine fleet for operations within the first island chain. As the PLAN starts to focus on building a blue water navy for operations beyond the first island chain it is in need of new nuclear submarines that are more modern and quiet than the old classes they currently have at their disposal. Both the Type 095 and the Type 096 mark a significant change in nuclear submarine design. The Type 095, and the improved Type 093, will have a VLS that makes them resemble American instead of Russian submarines.

The same is true for the Type 096 class with a hull that should look like a western submarine instead of a Russian Delta class submarine. As such, China is breaking away from Russian submarine designs. The new nuclear submarine classes will be further improvements but the question is if they will bridge the gap with the modern US submarines that are their rivals. It is possible that the Type 095 and 096 are just further steps in the evolution process and not an end goal. As such, we can expect China to build a Type 097 and 098 in the next decade to further close the gap with US submarines.

The major implications of the cancellation of the F-35 for the US and Royal Navy

The F-35 is one of the most debated weapon program ever in the United States armed forces. Enormous cost overruns, multiple failures and a delivery time that keeps being pushed further into the future are the big problems that trouble the F-35 program. With each failure the demand to cancel the F-35 program is getting louder. Still, the US armed forces are dedicated to go ahead with the F-35 program and keep on pushing it to make sure that the F-35 enters service. A cancellation of the F-35 program would not only will leave the US Air Force without a fifth generation aircraft to confront its adversaries, especially Russia and China whom are developing their own fifth generation aircraft, but it would also have an impact on the US and Royal Navy and US Marine Corps (USMC).

In the future, the USMC is planning to operate  from new amphibian warships of the America-class. Part of their air wing on these ships will consist of short take off and vertical landing (STOVL) aircraft. The aircraft in mind is the F-35B and this makes sense. With the Asian Pivot of the Obama administration the US Navy and USMC are taking a more prominent role in the Pacific. This means that their main adversary will be China. To stay ahead of China’s military rise and modernization, the US have a reel need in a fifth generation aircraft that can outperform the new Chinese aircraft.

F-35 practicing landing on board of the USS Wasp

Delays in the F-35 program are working against the USMC. The longer it takes for the F-35, the more difficult it becomesfor the US to guarantee a superiority in aircraft before China develops its own new generation aircraft with equal or even superior performance as the F-35.

The delays in the F-35 have already caused a major tactical disadvantage for both the USMC and the US Navy who want to operate the aircraft. Designed to be a stealth plane, its prolonged development and testing phases have caused it to run behind the latest developments. The new Russian and Chinese radar systems are reported to be capable to detect and track the F-35. At the same time the F-35 lacks the equipment to jam enemy radars.

The USMC managed to purchase Harrier aircraft from the Royal Navy in order to equip their forces on board of the amphibian carriers of the US Navy. Expecting further delays in the F-35 program, these Harriers were modernized and are expected to last until 2030 although many doubt if this date can be met. The USMC is in favor for the F-35 program and keeps supporting it as it has no alternative aircraft available that can operate from amphibian carriers once the Harrier aircraft have to be taken out of service. Failure and cancellation of the F-35 would leave the USMC without an aircraft that can be used to support its troops on the ground until a new aircraft is developed and tested, a lengthy process that can take several years. The development of the F-35 started in 1996 and after almost 20 years it still isn’t produced in the mass numbers that are needed. Developing a new aircraft is expected to take at least a decade and can go up to two decades if the testing phase is prolonged.

The situation is less critical for the US Navy. Although the US Navy has stated that it would like the F-35C variant to operate as the principal carrier aircraft it still  has several other options available should the F-35 program be canceled. The most reasonable option for the US Navy is to continue to use the F-18 Super Hornet as the principle carrier fighter aircraft until a new aircraft design can enter service.

Unlike the US, which still has options available, the Royal Navy has no backup plans. The F-35 is envisioned to be the aircraft deployed from the new British carriers of the Queen Elizabeth class. The first aircraft carrier, the HMS Queen Elizabeth will be commissioned in the 2016/2017 timeframe but it won’t be until 2020 when the Royal Navy is expecting to have the F-35. This means that the Royal Navy will have to make do for 3 years without an aircraft stationed on its carrier. It can also no longer fall back on Harrier jets as those have been sold to the USMC. A cancellation of the F-35 program would mean that the Royal Navy will have 2 aircraft carriers in 2020 but no aircraft that can operate from them. The Royal Navy can not fall back on other types of carrier aircraft since its carriers are using sky ramps. Only Russia and China currently have planes that can take off from a ski ramp but it is very unlikely that the United Kingdom will buy fighters from these countries.

F-35 mock up for the christening ceremony of the HMS Queen elizabeth

Conclusion

The F-35 program is known to be extremely costly with a price tag that keeps rising every year, it is prone to many failures that grounded the existing fleet on several occasions and it has taken so long to develop that it is no longer the superior aircraft it was envisioned to be in the beginning of its development. Setbacks and budget overruns have already caused strong opposition from both the US government and the US military itself as whether the F-35 is the aircraft the US armed forces still need.

The program, however, is too far into its development to be canceled overnight and even if the F-35 program is canceled it will have grave implications for the US Navy and US Marine Corps. Although the US Navy have the luxury to keep on using the F-18 Super Hornet in the next years and decade until a new aircraft design is developed, the situation for the USMC and the Royal Navy is worse.

If the F-35 program is canceled the USMC can only depend on its aging fleet of Harrier aircraft and these are too few in numbers to support all the USMC operations. Although modernized to be kept in service until 2030 many doubt if that date can be met.

The Royal Navy however has no other alternative and a cancellation of the F-35 program will leave the Royal Navy without planes to place on its new aircraft carriers.