Most
countries are aiming for the 2020-2025 timeframe to complete the modernization
and expansion of their navies. By 2020 the UK is expected to have a carrier
strike force again while the US and China will have made further steps in
modernizing their carrier wings. Likewise India and other Asian countries are
also planning for the 2020-2025 timeframe but this is more in order to keep
pace with the Chinese Navy. One major
power is however planning for the 2050 timeframe and that is Russia.
Russia’s
2050 timeframe is easy to explain. Since the fall of the Soviet Union the
Russian Federation has been struggling to create a major economy that can
sustain a large naval force. Russia is further hampered by the fact that it
needs 5 fleets: The Northern, Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific fleet and the
Caspian sea flotilla. Given the current development of the Russian economy and
the state of its shipyards both in size, location and know how Russia will
first need to expand its shipyards, modernize them and find the necessary know
how to start building modern ships. This is further complicated by the fact
that Russia until recently had to import engines from the Ukraine. With the
current situation between Russia and the Ukraine this vital source of equipment
is no longer available. Although Russia can build modern corvettes and
frigates, it is incapable of building anything bigger like destroyers and
cruisers without the necessary know how.
Russia
will first need a large period of investments, both in its general economy and its shipyards, before it can start to
build new modern fleets. This is
why Russia looks at the 2050 timeframe.
Russia's geography demands that each fleet can operate independent as other fleets can not shift fast enough to support another fleet |
Given
the current evolution of the balance of power the Pacific will not be a
favorite area for the Russians to deploy a fleet. Russia will be incapable of
building up a fleet powerful enough to equal China and the Unites States who
will be the primary actors in this area. Still, Russia will be an important
player in this area and will have the need to deploy a substantial naval force
to project its power. Russia’s main adversary will be Japan as both nations
have a dispute over the Kuril islands that
Russia has occupied since the
end of World War 2. As long as Russia controls the Kuril Islands it has a free
acces route into he Pacific Ocean. In Japanese hands, these islands can be used
to hamper or blockade Russian attempts to sail undetected into the Pacific
Ocean.
The Kuril Islands: A blockade for the Pacific Fleet when in Japanese hands |
Japan
already operates a larger and
more modern fleet than Russia’s
Pacific fleet but Japan also needs to face the Chinese Navy. As such, a small
fleet capable of effectively deterring
the Japanese from retaking the
Kurile islands will be in all what Russia will be looking for. Of course the
Pacific is an ideal place for Russia to deploy its SSBNs. Operating out of
Kamchatka, Russian submarines can mount a nuclear deterrence against both China
and the US. This nuclear strike capability will make Russia a recognized
partner to deal with concerning major political topics in the Pacific.
The
Caspian Sea is a vital area for Russia’s economy that is mainly centered on
energy. Russia seeks to maintain the status quo that currently exists in the
Caspian Sea, with Russia being the main naval power. As such it will monitor
the navies of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran closely. In the
past years a large modernization of the Caspian Sea Flotilla has happened to
secure Russia’s position as well as to counter the Iranian naval build up in
the Caspian Sea.
The same
situation will exist in the Baltic Sea where Russia will maintain a presence
large enough to deter the naval forces of the European Union and NATO to use
the Baltic Sea freely in case of a conflict. The easy access of the Baltic Sea
with the Atlantic Ocean will make the Baltic fleet important to venture out and
support either the Northern or Black Sea fleet or to operate on the Atlantic
Ocean. Some of the modern Russian shipyards are located either in
Saint-Petersburg and Kaliningrad. Thus the Baltic Sea is currently a very
important area strategically as it is Russia’s only area, apart from the
Northern fleet shipyards, to construct the modern ships the Russian navy so
desperately needs. Although the Baltic Sea is a very important area today, in a
2050 timeframe it will lose some of its relevance as other areas will also have
modern shipyards.
The
Northern Fleet is the most important of all fleets as it has access to the
Atlantic. The shipyard in Severodvinsk is the only one capable of building and
maintaining aircraft carriers as well as nuclear submarines. The importance of
the Northern Fleet will only increase with the melting of the polar caps and
the large amount of minerals, oil and gas that will be available for extraction
from the Arctic seabed. At the
same time new trade routes will open up, connecting the Atlantic with the
Pacific Ocean. As all Arctic nations are presenting claims of large area’s to
be put in their economic zones it will also become an area of strong
militarization. Russia is already in the lead as it has the biggest fleet in the
Arctic and is opening new bases to expand its military presence. The melting of
the polar caps will also allow the Northern fleet to effectively support the
Russian forces in the Pacific by transiting through the Bering Strait between
Siberia and Alaska.
Current claims of Arctic states |
With the
most important shipyards centered around Severodvinsk, the Northern fleet has
direct access to repair and modernization facilities and can be easily
reinforced with new modern ships. The Sevmash shipyard is also named as the
only Russian shipyard currently capable of building a nuclear aircraft carrier
that the Russian navy will need in order to project power on a global scale.
Perhaps
equally important as the Northern Fleet is Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Operating
mainly out of the Crimean city of Sevastopol it is the only fleet that
operates in a warm water port and with fast access to the Mediterranean,
African coastal nations and the Middle East. As Russia seeks to project its
power it finds many states that have good relations with Russia in both Africa
and the Middle East. As such, the Black Sea Fleet is currently the most
important fleet in Russia’s inventory as it can project power in Africa and the
Middle east. As such, Russia is currently seeking to expand this fleet into its
most important fleet and is seeking oversea bases within the Mediterranean. So
far, Russia only has basing rights in the Syrian ports of Latakia and Tartus
and this explains Russia’s mayor role in supporting the Assad-regime. At the
same time, Russia is looking for partners aside from Syria. The Russian fleet
is planning to conduct amphibious exercises with Eritrea in October. Eritrea
used to provide naval bases for the Soviet navy during the Cold War and
renewing the ties between Russia and Eritra might allow the Russians to project
power into the Red Sea.
With the
capture of Sevastopol from Ukraine earlier in 2014, Russia can now station as
many ships as it wants in Sevastopol. With Russia also having access to the
Sevastopol shipyard it is now capable of building and repairing ships from the
Black Sea Fleet without sending them
to the Baltic Sea or to Severodvinsk. Further development of the naval
facilities in Sevastopol will allow Russia to operate a fleet independent from
other areas.
Conclusion
At the
moment Russia’s main fleet is the Black Sea Fleet. Its access to the
Mediterranean, Africa and the Middle East make it play a vital role in Russia’s
foreign policy in projecting Russian power. This fleet will remain to be the
most important fleet for the Russians in the next years as Russia seeks to
expand its Black Sea Fleet and create a permanent naval task force in the
Mediterranean.
The
Baltic and Caspian fleets play a smaller role and Russia will strive to just
maintain a status quo with its neighbours in these areas. At the same time
Russia cannot hope to close the existing gap with China and the United States
and has to play a secondary role in the Pacific. Its main rival will be Japan
as both countries are claiming the Kurile islands, currently under Russian control.
Building a force big enough to deter Japan, who also has to face the Chinese
navy, will be sufficient in the future.
Russia’s
main fleet for the 2050 timeframe is the Northern Fleet as Russia seeks to
claim as much of the Arctic Sea as possible and is already militarizing the
region. With access to both the Actic, Atlantic and Pacific oceans this
Northern Fleet will form a strategic force that can be shifted to areas where a
large Russian naval force will be required. As the Sevmash shipyard in Severodvinsk
is the only shipyard in Russia capable of building and maintaining aircraft
carriers and nuclear submarines. It is for the moment also the only place where
Russia can start building nuclear aircraft carriers in the future.
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