Update on Russia's naval program

The Russian Navy has set for itself a very ambitious plan to rebuild its naval forces and become once again a decent blue water navy. The only problem is that Russia has these plans a lot and even after 15 years it still finds itself without a decent navy. Hampered by a weak economy, several priorities, expensive technology, a lack of knowledge and a decent maritime defence industry it will be hard for Russia to change the tide in the next years.

As we stated earlier, Russia aims for the 2050 deadline to have its new fleet but it faces a large gap in the next years. As the life expectancy of its soviet build warships are ending it seems that Russia must find the means to rebuild its naval forces to bridge the 2020-2050 gap or face the prospect of several years without a blue water navy to rely on.

Modernisation of older ships

Russia has problems with keeping enough large surface combatants active. It indeed had to resort to modernizing decommissioned Kirov class cruisers to maintain a decent force of large warships afloat. More problematic is the situation in the Russian submarine forces. Depending on the numbers and analysis it is estimated that between 40 to 70% of all nuclear submarines in the Russian Navy are not operational. Since most of these ships were outdated models that were left over from the Soviet Union it is debatable if they possess any real combat power.

Russia had plans to modernize its submarine fleet by 2020 but delays were encountered in the construction of the Borei-class SSBN and the Yasen-class SSN. These delays were mostly financial in reason. Still, these delays mean that by 2020 Russia will not have its full complement of modern submarines and thus will have to rely longer on it soviet submarines. A new plan has recently emerged to modernise up to 10 nuclear submarines of the Akula- and Oscar II-class. This modernisation plan will extend their lifespan with 15 to 20 years making their projected end-life last between 2030 and 2035. Modernizing 10 submarines is aimed to counter the gap created by the slow construction of the Yasen-class SSN as only three to four submarines out of the projected eight will be ready in 2020.

Indeed, Russia’s naval program is very ambitious and even neglects its economic and technologic deficiencies. It is estimated that between 50 and 70% of the weapons and equipment envisioned for 2020 will not be ready. This forces Russia to keep modernizing its already aging and worn out fleet of Soviet era ships to keep its Navy up to strength.

Impossible carrier ambitions?

Russia has always stated that it wants aircraft carrier. The exact amount was always debatable, depending on the defence budgets. A fair assessment would be that Russia wants to operate 4 to 6 aircraft carrier by 2050, spread equally between the Northern and Pacific Fleets.

A couple months ago a design of a new Russian aircraft carrier was unveiled in Saint Petersburg. Nuclear powered, carrying 100 aircraft and with a ski ramp and catapults, the ship was unlike anything seen so far. This was just an early design and there can happen a lot between the first scale model and the carrier that will eventually be build. We must however focus on how realistic a 100.000 ton carrier is for Russia.

During the Soviet Union it was the shipyard “Nikolayev 444” in Ukraine that built the aircraft carriers. Russia no longer has access to this shipyard with the brake up of the Soviet Union. Even if it had the Nikolayev 444 shipyard it would still not be enough as even that shipyard wasn’t built to construct 100.000 ton aircraft carriers. Indeed, no shipyard in Russia can build such an aircraft carrier. The only possibility would be to build it in two segments and weld them together in the deep water basin at Sevmash in northern Russia. But a better option would be the construction of a new large dry dock but this goes beyond Russia’s current defence budget. Russia also never had experience in building this type of aircraft carrier and there is doubt if she could do it on her own. An earlier deal with France regarding the purchase of the Mistral class ships was also aimed in bringing modern shipbuilding technology to Russia. China seems a likely partner as the country has ambitions to build its own nuclear powered aircraft carrier. Still, even if Russia would find the skills and means to build an aircraft carrier it would take 10 to 15 years before they get it operational.

Own developments

Russia isn’t incapable of building warships and it has experience, just not in building large warships. Russia’s newest generation of corvettes and frigates are of a good quality but they serve only as a green water navy and lack the means to project power globally.

Russia does have the ambitions to build its navy and new projects are beginning to take shape that air aimed to build larger surface combatants. A new class of destroyers, the “Leader” class is currently on the drawing board. Destroyers will be the backbone of any blue water navy and Russia will need them in combination of its carrier ambitions.

Russia’s new aircraft carrier is designed to project power, unlike the previous carriers that were only designed to protect the own task force. A power projecting aircraft carrier lacks the means to protect itself, in spite of its large arsenal of aircraft. This is why aircraft carriers always travel with an escort, usually made up by destroyers armed with a lot of missiles. If Russia wants to project power globally and is serious in its carrier program then it will need a substantial amount of destroyers in its arsenal.

Russia also hasn’t given up on the Mistral-class. Plans are under way to build a copy of the Mistral-class in Russia. The construction of a Russian version will most likely be taken place in the Baltic shipyards according to the latest media statements. Once again the deadline of 2020 is envisioned. Once again it should be noted that Russia lacks the expertise to build these warships on their own but this doesn’t deter them. It is possible they manage to build some variant on the Mistral-class but the question will remain how good the vessel will be. Still, Russia needs to learn how to build large surface combatants and has to start somewhere.

Outside pressure

Reality starts to face the Russian Navy. Most of its current fleet is old and nearing the end of its surface life. The current ship building plans are aimed at 2020. It is estimated that by then most of the Soviet era warships are no longer functional. A full recovery for the Russian Navy still remains for 2050.

Can Russia afford itself to scale back its ambitious shipbuilding program and invest first in its defence industry? The answer is no. Russia feels the need to stay involved in the world and the best thing to do that is by having the tools to project power. The 21ste century will most likely be a maritime one and Russia can not afford itself to be left over with a fleet of corvettes, frigates and diesel-electric submarines that are most suited for coastal defence. It needs powerful warships capable of operating a long way from home.

Already Russia is feeling the pressure of outside nations. China and the United States are building up their naval forces in the Pacific. Russia already feels the need to strengthen its fleet in the Pacific in order to maintain its influence or faces the prospect to be bypassed by smaller nations like Japan and South-Korea.

Likewise it needs to be able to defend the Black Sea and maintain its naval presence in the Mediterranean. A smaller Russian navy can not be active everywhere.

Conclusion

The Russian navy finds itself at the cross roads. It needs to have a decent navy, capable of operating globally and compete with other naval powers. There are however lots of doubts if Russia can make it. The plans for 2020 are very ambitious and might even fall short. This will be true in the field of nuclear submarines. The Yasen-class SSN will only consist of four boats by 2020 instead of eight fully operational in the planning. This means Russia needs to fall back on its Soviet-era submarines but their combat power and relevance remains questionable.

In the field of surface warships Russia needs to learn how to build ships bigger than a frigate. The “Leader” class destroyer and a Russian version of the Mistral are good initiatives to learn how to build large warships. This experience will be needed once Russia starts building nuclear powered aircraft carriers but without a decent dockyard the whole carrier program seems difficult and troublesome to realize.

A new destroyer for Russia

Russia keeps modernising its naval forces in order to create a blue water navy that is capable of challenging the US Navy on the high seas. In an earlier report we mentioned the bad state of the Russian surface fleet. Most of its surface combatants that form its blue water navy are very old and will probably retire within a decade. Frantic efforts to modernise old Kirov battlecruisers can be seen as a last effort to preserve Russia’s influence on the world’s oceans.

Over the past two decades Russia has been working to preserve her naval strength and several new warships have joined the Russian navy. Most of these surface warships however were all corvettes and frigates more aimed to protect Russia’s coastline and to form a green water navy capable of operating around 200 nautical miles out of the shoreline. Indeed, what Russia has been missing over the past years were large surface warships that can form a blue water navy. Central in a blue water navy are destroyers, cruisers and aircraft carriers.

 

Model of the presumed Leader-class destroyers

The construction of new destroyers has been debated many times in the Russian media. There are many dates and programs being put forward over Russia’s new destroyers just as it is the case with the Russian plans for building a new aircraft carrier. Things are however moving as Russian leaders become aware that a new class of ocean going destroyers is needed in order to project power around the world. A new destroyers class, called the Leader-class, is currently being developed.

Details about the construction of the Leader-class are vague and sometimes confusion but here is what we already know about this class. First it should be noted that the Leader-class destroyers are still in development. During 2015 the final design of the new destroyer should be finalized by the Northern Design Bureau, the creator of practically all of the major surface warships in the Russian fleet.

Construction of the new destroyer itself is not planned until 2020 at the earliest. Funding of the new Leader-class destroyer will probably arrive after 2020 and will be linked on a bigger shipbuilding program aimed to rebuild a massive Russian Navy by 2050.

The construction of the first vessels should happen in the 2023-2025 timeframe. As such these new destroyers will serve as an intermediate model to bridge the next 25 years until the new Russian blue water is finally ready.

The Leader-class will replace the old Project 956 Sovremennyy-class destroyers as well as the Project 1155 Udaloy-class anti-submarine destroyers. So far only twelve destroyers are reported to be build. Six will be commissioned in the Northern Fleet, with the other six commissioned in the Pacific Fleet. In earlier reports the Russian Navy did spoke however of 14 to 16 destroyers to be build.

 

Computer representation of the Leader-class

The Leader-class will also be a multi-purpose destroyer. The main weapons on board of these destroyers will be Caliber integrated missile system which is exported under the name “Klub” and includes 3M-14 anti-ship and cruise missiles. These missiles are designed for the destruction of targets at great distances.

It is also possible that the destroyer will also carry the P-800 Onyx anti-ship supersonic cruise missiles. Also probably a main weapon system on board the Leader-class will be the S-500 anti-aircraft system, specially redesigned to be used on board of warships.

 

Alternate design of the Leader-class that is believed to be
the nuclear powered variant

The most interesting fact to follow up will be the propulsion system on board of these destroyers. Two designs are being developed, one with a normal gas turbine and one with a nuclear power plant used for propulsion. Of all the Russian surface warships, only the Russian cruisers of the Kirov class are using a nuclear power plant. A nuclear power plant will give these destroyers an endless reach, only curbed by the endurance of the crew. One can question however how wise it is to place a nuclear power plant on board of a surface warship who in the event of a conflict will be in the forefront of the fight.

Conclusion

The Russian Navy is in need of a modernisation but how and when has always been a subject to much speculation, even within the Russian Navy itself.

Nevertheless is Russia eager to build a navy capable of operating on the world oceans and for that it needs destroyers. During 2015 the design of the new Leader-class destroyers will be finished and construction of these new destroyers will begin after 2020. Only twelve ships are currently reported to be constructed but it is possible that this number will go up to possibly 16.

Details remain vague for weapon systems and propulsion to be installed. We can however say to a fair degree that these ships will be better armed and more reliably powered than their predecessors of the Sovremennyy and Udaloy classes.

Prospects of the Russian Navy in the 2020-2030 timeframe

The Russian Navy is since the collapse of the Soviet Union a shadow of its former self. This situation has two reasons. First the economic collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia made it impossible to find the funds to operate a large navy. Navies are very expensive because they rely heavily on technology to keep up with other navies. A second reason is that a large amount of schooled technicians and skilled workers fled Russia to work abroad. The loss of funds and a skilled workforce made it impossible to design build and operate a modern navy. Only when President Vladimir Putin took office in 2000 did the economy of Russia start to improve so that new ships could be afforded.

The Russian Navy already suffered badly in the decade after the Soviet Union. All of its ships were leftovers from the Soviet Union and even maintaining a small portion of the former Soviet Union was difficult.  As such the Russian Navy was falling far behind against its main NATO adversaries. Due to poor maintenance ships started to break down often up to a level that every Russian naval task force in the past years has been accompanied by an ocean going tug to tow the vessels to a shipyard in case of a breakdown at sea.

Russia still wants to claim its place as a superpower with global reach and in order to accomplish that it needs a strong navy. Under the Putin regime several plans were made to rebuild the Russian Navy but progress has been very slow. At the moment Russia is however capable of building modern corvettes and frigates to replace to old Soviet build ships. What Russia still lacks is the capability to build anything bigger than a frigate. Already the decay of the Russian Navy in the 1990s and the slow build-up of a new modern navy are showing its signs.

The large surface combatants of the Russian Navy are starting to get too old and become too unreliable to be operational for much longer. Russia’s only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, is very prone to break downs and is currently being modernized in Severodvinsk. This will most likely be her last modernization program before Russia is forced to deactivate her. The same story is becoming true for Russia’s cruisers. The cruisers of the Kirov and Slava class are still in a decent condition and can remain operational for the next several years, depending on how good they can be maintained. There are still unexpected events that can change this prospect. Recently the Russian cruiser Kerch caught fire in the port of Sevastopol and the damage was too big to be repaired. As a result Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is currently without an operational cruiser as the Slava class cruiser Moskva is also undergoing maintenance.

Kerch class cruiser

As stated earlier, Russia lacks the know how to build large surface combatants and the aging ships it has now will not be replaced any time soon. Russia is already trying to minimize the impact. It recently started to modernise the Kirov class cruiser Admiral Nakhinov. Build in 1983 it was placed out of commission in 1992. Ever since then the cruiser has been placed in reserve. Throughout the past decade there were several plans to modernise the Admiral Nakhinov but these programs were all terminated by the lack of funds and other priorities. In January 2014 the modernisation of the Admiral Nakhinov finally started and she is now planned to join the fleet in 2018.

 

Admiral Nakhinov at the Sevmash naval yard

The biggest attempt so far to acquire the know-how that is required to build large surface combatants was the deal with France to build Mistral class amphibious landing ships. France took the lead in building the first two ships while subsections would be built in Russia and assembled in France. There was the option of building two more Mistral class ships in Russia with the assistance of France. The situation in Eastern Ukraine and Russian support for the pro-Russian separatists forced France to cancel this deal. It is unclear what kind of level of expertise and know-how was transferred to Russia but it is most likely to be minimal. Russia would still need the assistance of France to build two Mistral class ships at Russian shipyards.

The failure of the Mistral deal leaves Russia without the transfer it badly needs to rebuild its navy. Russia does however plan to have a modern ocean going fleet in 2050 so it still has a 35 year window to organize its ship building capabilities. However Russia lacks currently the know how to build cruisers, let alone new aircraft carriers capable to rival their US counterparts. Designs for new destroyers still remain on the drawing boards. At the immediate future we expect Russia to still be able to operate its last remaining large surface combatants for the next 5 to 10 years but afterwards it will only have a nay that consists of corvettes and frigates. This would reduce the Russian Navy to a green water navy with a main focus on coastal defence and operating up to 200 nautical miles from its coast. This falls short of a new blue water navy with a global reach that is envisioned.

Russia does have options available to get the necessary know-how to build large warships. India is currently building its own aircraft carriers. Russia and India already have a big history over the past decade on cooperating together to build new ships and weapon systems. Russia build the 6 Talwar class frigates for the Indian Navy and both countries worked together to develop the BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile. Russia also modernised the old aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov for the Indian Navy. The progress on the modernisation of the Admiral Gorshkov shows how bad Russia is in building, maintaining and modernizing large warships. The project was plagued with cost overruns and delays.

Another source of knowledge and expertise could be China. The Chinese Navy (PLAN) is making a transition from green water to a blue water navy. It already operates one carrier, the Liaoning, and is building two to three more of these carriers. China is also developing a new destroyer, the Type 055, which resembles a US Navy Arleigh Burke class destroyer although the Type 055 is in size more a cruiser then a destroyer when one looks at the tonnage. China also develops amphibious landing ships. In all, China is developing its shipbuilding know-how and since both China and Russia are allies under the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) it could transfer this technology to Russia.

Russia is still able to keep up in building modern submarines. Despite a decade long gap in which no new submarines were build, except for projects already started in the last days of the Soviet Union, Russia still knows how to build modern submarines. The nuclear missile submarines of the Borei class are good vessels. Russia’s newest attack submarine, the Severodvinsk, of the Graney class is an improvement over the Akula II class submarines despite the fact that the project was started in 1993. The second submarine of this class, the Kazan, will no doubt be even a better version as it incorporates new weapon systems.

Just as with the surface fleet, Russia’s submarine fleet is nearing the end of its capabilities. The new submarines are not being built to expand the submarine fleet but to preserve the combat capabilities it has right now.

Conclusion

Even though in the past years we have witnessed a strong Russian Navy operating at the high seas there is the reality that the last large surface combatants of the Russian Navy are at the end of their limits and will be placed out of service in the very near future. The Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier is undergoing what will most likely be its last modernisation and operational period. The Admiral Nakhinov cruiser will be modernised and operational in the 2020-2030 timeframe but one modernised cruiser will not be enough, especially if the other cruisers of the Kirov and Slava classes are nearing the end of their operational lifetimes.

Russia is in dire need for the know-how of building large surface combatants but it is unlikely that it will get it from western shipyards. India and China are other candidates for the transfer of this know-how. Given how difficult it is for India to build an aircraft carrier and the fact that the country still hasn’t built cruisers and destroyers it seems more likely that China will be the source of this knowledge. China already builds modern frigates, amphibious landing ships and aircraft carriers. It also started to develop the Type 055 destroyer, another type of surface combatant that Russia hasn’t been able to build.

Although Russia is still able to operate a decent blue water navy this capability will end in the near future. Given the fact that Russia is running behind in shipbuilding capabilities the near future will see the Russian Navy to regress into a green water navy of corvettes and frigates.

How Lithuania counters Russia's secret war

Russia has become an expert in what is called secret war (or 5th generation war) in the recent years. The goal in the secret war is to gain as much control and influence over other countries as possible. Propaganda and economic leverage are among the first steps in a secret war aimed to prevent a country from taking hostile actions against the country that employs secret war.

Russia’s secret war is clearly visible in the Eastern Ukraine where Russia seems to be always one step ahead of the game. Since it are not overt actions that are being employed, Russia will always have a possible deniability. Lithuania however is keen on countering Russia’s tactics to employ secret war in this country and three steps are already taken to pull Lithuania out of the Russian sphere of influence.

 

Energy independence

On October 27^th Lithuania welcomed the arrival of the FRSU Independence at the Baltic Sea port of Klaipeda. The FRSU Independence is a liquefied natural gas terminal that is capable to transport 80% of the consumption of gas in the Baltic States. However deliveries to Latvia and Estonia can only be done once the existing pipelines are upgraded. This expected to be done by the end of 2015.

 

FRSU Independence

Previous all the Baltic States needed Russian gas to meet their consumption. This gas was provided by the Kremlin backed Gazprom company. This gave Russia huge economic leverage of these three countries as well as the opportunity to charge any gas price it wanted. One ship is thus capable of breaking the Russian influence over the energy security of the Baltic States, reducing the amount of soft power Russia can employ on these countries.

 

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