The impact of the crisis in Ukraine for the Russian Black Sea Fleet

The current crisis in the Ukraine which the West condemns as a Russian invasion and the Russians call an operation to protect the ethnic Russian population in the Crimea, will have long term effects for both the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) and the Ukrainian Navy.

A quick comparison between both navies makes it clear that the BSF has the upper hand as shown in the following table:

	Black Sea Fleet	Ukrainian Navy
Guided missile cruiser	1	0
Large anti-submarine ship	1	0
Frigate	3	1
corvettes	7	7
minesweepers	11	5
Landing ships	9	2
Missile boats	5	1
Diesel submarines	2	0

Of course figures don’t tell anything. This table excluded support ships as well as smaller patrol boats. At all times a certain amount of ships are undergoing maintenance and aren’t seagoing or capable of performing operations. One also has to take into account that the BSF is providing the bulk of the Russian naval ships patrolling in front of the Syrian coast.

Although the crisis so far hasn’t escalated at sea and no shots have been fired, there is the possibility that the crisis could escalate into a regional war between Russia and the Ukraine. Although the Ukrainian Navy is smaller and in a worse shape than the BSF it still poses a threat that has to be neutralized. Since the Ukrainian Navy is smaller it has to be capable of concentrating its forces against the BSF. In order to prevent the force concentration of the Ukrainian Navy, the Russian Navy sank the old anti-submarine vessel Ochakov to block Donuzlav Lake on the 7^th of March. About 7 Ukrainian warships are reported to be trapped in Donuzlav Lake as the sunken ship now blocks the only channel out of the lake. At the same time 2 ships are also blocked at Sevastopol. The 2 ships have pushed themselves off the dock to prevent boarding by the Russians. However 6 Russians vessels are blocking the channel out of Sevastopol, thereby preventing the 2 Ukrainian ships to leave the port. These acts assure that the BSF now has complete dominance over the Ukrainian Navy. Unlike the war against Georgia in august 2008 where the Russians sank several ships of the Georgian Navy, the Russians are now more interested in preserving the Ukrainian ships. Of course the situation in Georgia in 2008 was different and Ukraine and Russia aren’t at war so sinking or even damaging Ukrainian ships would serve as an escalation to  war. This is something that the Russians off course want to avoid as long as possible.

The blockade of the Donuzlav Lake does open up several scenarios, all depending on what game the Russians are playing. The 7 intact ships could be used as leverage during negotiations between Moscow and Kiev. Russian aid in removing the sunken Ochakov and the intact release of the 7 ships could be used as a bargaining chip in either the demand of the secession of the Crimea or Kiev giving the Crimea the status of an autonomous region. It is also possible that the trapped ships could be turned over to the BSF if local authorities in the Crimea secede from the Ukraine. The crisis in the Ukraine also opens unexpected possibilities for the BSF. The most advantageous scenario would be that Russia annexes Crimea and makes it a Russian republic. This would free the BSF from any treaties concerning the use of the naval base of Sevastopol. The BSF would then be capable of stationing any amount of troops and warships in the Crimea as it sees fit. The BSF could then be built up and further expanded in the next decades to support operations in the Mediterranean and Indian Ocean. This would expand the range of Russian influence in these regions and curbing US and EU influence.

However the crisis in the Ukraine causes a further polarization between Russia and its neighbors around the Black Sea. On March the 5^th the Turkish government gave the US warship USS Truxtun the permission to cross the Turkish Straits which the ship did on March the 7^th. Being a destroyer of the Arleigh Burke class, the USS Truxtun is now the most powerful warship in the Black Sea. The 1936 Montreux convention regarding the regime of the Straits limit the time and amount of ships the US Navy can send into the Black Sea. No more than nine non-Black Sea state warships, with a total aggregate tonnage of no more than 30,000 tons, may pass at any one time, and they are permitted to stay in the Black Sea for no longer than twenty-one days. The USS Truxton will be joined by the frigate USS Taylor. The USS Taylor however is currently docked in a Turkish port in the Black Sea after scraping the seafloor on the 12^th of February while entering the port of Samsun. This means that the USS Taylor will have to leave the Black Sea very soon.

The mission of the USS Truxtun in the Black Sea will be a training mission with both the Bulgarian and Romanian navies. Although these exercises were planned long before the crisis in Ukraine, the timing comes at a critical moment. With tensions rising and the BSF having total dominance over the Ukrainian Navy the US sends a powerful signal towards the Russian Federation. Both Bulgaria and Romania are NATO members and talks and exercises concerning how to tackle the BSF will be held as a preparation for the eventual but highly unlikely possibility that NATO intervenes on behalf of the Ukraine. As a military organization NATO does prepare plans for interventions even when it is clear that such interventions are very unlikely to happen. Every military organization has the duty to itself to be prepared for all kind of different scenario’s through contingency planning. Nevertheless, the conduct of the NATO exercises in the Black Sea will most likely be closely monitored by the Russians.