The end of the Cold War started a two
decade long trend in Europe, namely the reduction of military hardware in the
member states of the EU. As of current the powers the EU has to its disposal
are in order of importance: economic power, political power and military power.
One of the catchphrases in geopolitics has been that the EU is an economic
giant, a political dwarf and a military worm. Indeed, after two decades of
downsizing its military forces the EU has barely any military power available and
what it does have available is almost never used as all 28 member states of the
EU need to agree on a joint military mission.
The lack of military hardware brings with
it security risks and these are now best seen in the eastern Mediterranean where
several existing and potential conflicts pose challenges to the EU to maintain
its influence as a global player, or at least being able to exercise influence
in its own backyard. The conflicts mentioned just above are:
- The Arab Israeli conflict
- The Syrian war and Russia’s involvement.
- Cyprus and EU tensions with Turkey over a solution
- The instability of Lebanon
- A potential conflict between Israel en Turkey over ownership of undersea gas fields
- The presence of terrorist groups in the Sinai and earlier attempts to attack ships in the Suez Canal
Even if the EU has no stomach for military
interventions and existing conflicts it must at least be capable of protecting
its economic interests. This means that the EU must be involved in the
protection of the Suez Canal as it is the gateway of European trade with Asia. So
far the Suez Canal appears to be safe but a failed attempt by a terrorist group
operating in the Sinai to sink ships in the canal shows Europe’s trade routes
are already under attack. The failed attack consisted of the firing of RPGs at
a merchant ship. The ship barely suffered any damage but one cannot exclude a
new attempt that might succeed, through the use of more appropriate tactics and
could potentially block the Canal for several weeks.
Looking at the position of the maritime forces
of the EU we see an unequal spreading within the Mediterranean. There is only
the Greek navy in the eastern part to protect the EU’s interests. Greece
however still suffers hard from its economic crisis and budget cuts have caused
a reduction in military activities such as training and operations. In the
western part however we see a very strong concentration of naval forces with
the EU member states of Spain, France and Italy. However, these navies operate in a secure and
stable theater and apart from countering illegal immigration and smuggling
there are few tasks that they can perform.
There is a need to re-balance the EU’s
naval assets in the Mediterranean by shifting naval forces from the western
part to the eastern part. There are
several ways to accomplish this. One way would be the creation of a EU naval
task force in the Eastern Mediterranean. The organization of this task force
would be modeled after the EU Atalanta mission set up to combat piracy in the
Gulf of Aden. The benefit of this system is that every EU member with a navy
can contribute ships to this task force. However the downside would be that
this task force would be composed of ships that are ill fitted to counter a
particular situation.
Another way that this could be politically
possible for the EU is by creating a joint command, one could even call it a
headquarter for a Mediterranean fleet, that has direct control over the navies
of Spain, France, Italy and Greece, or at least parts thereof. This joint
command would then be capable of creating tailor made task forces composed of
the ships needed and available from the above mentioned navies. These tailor
made task forces could then be used to patrol or even intervene in the eastern
Mediterranean.
One last remark would be the use of the
Turkish Navy. Turkey has for long time sought membership of the EU and is a
member of the NATO alliance together with several other EU members. Turkey is
building a large navy so if it were to become an EU member the EU could use the
Turkish navy to increase its presence in the eastern part of the Mediterranean.
Such a scenario is however wishful thinking. Opposition from Greece and Cyprus
prevents the EU to accept Turkey as a member, and within Turkey, the desire to
join the EU has greatly diminished, especially following the financial crisis
in the EU. The closest level of ties between the EU and Turkey that could
be foreseen is an advanced economic trade regulation between Turkey and
the EU but this falls short compared to full EU membership.
To summarize we can conclude that the
eastern Mediterranean has the potential to become a very unstable theater that
will demand the attention of the EU as this area is vital for its economic
trade routes with Asia. The EU cannot afford to leave this area devoid of
military presence. Doing so would leave the EU without the necessary hard power
to back up its foreign policy in this region. In the current situation however
the EU is facing an unequal balance of its naval assets in this region with
only the Greek navy to show the flag. The creation of a joint command structure
for the Mediterranean would provide the legal and political framework to shift
naval assets from the western to the eastern part of the Mediterranean.
