Iran and the lifting of the sanctions

The lifting of the economic sanctions against Iran, as part of the US-Iranian deal over Iran’s nuclear program could have far reaching consequences. With the sanctions lifted the regime in Teheran will find it much easier to buy, develop and operate military equipment, not only in Iran proper but also abroad. When we look at the Iranian Navy we can expect that in the next years it will be able to modernize, expand and even operate in the Red Sea and Mediterranean. Iran’s primary adversaries in the region, Saudi-Arabia and Israel, are expected to counter the influence of the Iranian Navy by an increased presence in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Under the sanctions it was very difficult for Iran to develop its navy, and indeed all its armed forces. Faced with low budgets and an embargo it was impossible for Iran to develop large warships with modern technology that were capable to project power far beyond the Iranian coasts. The biggest surface warships were only the size of corvettes, even when Iran claimed that these vessels were destroyers. As for the three Kilo class submarines, these were bought before the sanctions as reaction to Iran’s nuclear program came into being. Under the sanctions it was difficult for these submarines to be maintained.

Now that the sanctions are largely lifted things will change a lot. The regime in Teheran can expect to end up with much more money to spend on its armed forces then ever was the case in the recent pasts. The export of oil will give Iran the necessary financial boast needed not only to revitalize its economy but to further develop its armed forces. Already Iran has made deals with Russia and it will most likely turn to China as well to trade oil for technology.

 

Jamaran class corvette - In the future Iran is exected to build bigger and more modern ships

In the past years the Iranian Navy was centered on being a brown water navy, operating close to the shores and equipped with small fast attack crafts (FACs) armed with anti-ship missiles and employing asymmetric tactics against standard navies. The reason for this is twofold, first, by using asymmetric tactics Iran played on the weakness of the US Navy who is never designed to fight FACs and midget submarines. A green water navy centered on normal submarines, corvettes and frigates on the other hand would be extremely vulnerable against the US Navy.

A second and more important reason for Iran to create a brown water navy was that it lacked the financial resources as well as the knowledge on how to build bigger warships. Building small, cheap and less sophisticated FACs was something that the Iranian Navy was capable to do and as such the focus become a brown water navy using asymmetric tactics.

Over the years the influence of Iran in the Middle East has grown, in part because apart from Syria the country is one of the few Shiite countries in the region. As such, Iran needed a way to project its power through the region and for this it used the ships of its green water navy. The main purpose of these ships was to smuggle weapons and foreign fighters between several conflicts in the region, mainly between Lebanon, Yemen and Somalia.

Now that the sanctions are lifted it is expected that Iran will try to find the means to improve its shipbuilding capabilities as well as acquire new, modern naval technology and weapon systems. Iran already has a fleet capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz but still lacks sufficient ships with a long range to make the Iranian presence felt through the Middle East. It is expected that in the next years Iran will expand and develop its green water navy even further.

Iran is currently involved in several different areas in the Middle East, all of them separated by large distances but accessible by sea. Iran runs a proxy war against Saudi-Arabia and has forces operating in Syria. Supplying these forces is difficult enough but protecting these supply routes, especially since in most cases it involves smuggling; means that Iran needs warships capable to operate in both the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.

Iran’s adversaries, Saudi-Arabia and Israel, are however keen to block any kind of projection of Iranian power in the Middle East. Both countries have more advanced warships then Iran and their operational fleet is larger than the green water navy of Iran. While both Israel and Saudi-Arabia will not go as far as starting a naval war it is probable that they will try to block the Iranian supply routes when they can. Incidents like that of the Gaza flotilla will most likely occur more often as Israel is determent to stop Iranian smuggle.

 

Israels Sa'ar 5 class corvettes - The backbone of Israels surface fleet

The most likely area of confrontation will be the Red Sea where Iranian smuggle routes with Syria run and where Israel and Saudi-Arabia have a naval base to conduct interdiction operations. This gives Israel and Saudi-Arabia an advantage since they operate close to their bases while Iran has to operate from its naval base in Bandar Abbas. Iran could solve its security status in the Red Sea by finding an allied nation willing to host an Iranian Naval presence. Only one country that is neutral in this conflict and that is Eritrea but it remains unknown if Eritrea is willing to give Iran a naval base.

It will take several years before Iran is able to build new, bigger and more modern warships that are more capable in projecting power and keeping its adversaries away. But with the lifting of the sanctions Iran is now more freely in acquiring the technology and skills needed while its status as leading Shiite nation.

Iran’s new asymmetric naval tactics

Iran’s naval leaders have come up with a new naval tactic to attack and defeat US Naval forces in the Persian Gulf.  Instead of merely using their swarm tactics of fast attack crafts to execute hit and run tactics against US Navy ships, Iran is now planning to use suicide attack runs on US Navy ships.

Suicide tactics are a game changer and they have a possibility of tipping the balance of power to the Iranian side. This is because, unlike the swarm attacks the Iranian Navy used until now, suicide craft aren’t require to survive the engagement.

Swarm attacks are designed to overwhelm US Navy defenses. A large group of small and maneuverable warships, called Fast Attack Crafts or FAC’s, is assembled to attack a single or a small group of US Navy warships. FAC’s are very small craft and they don’t have heavy weapons. Most of the times they carry small rockets to engage their opponent. Because they carry small weapons with a small range, they have to come close to their targets. During this approach they are under fire of the heavier weapons on board of the US destroyers and frigates. Notably the main gun, a 76 or 127mm gun, and the Close In Weapons system (CIWS), a fast firing 20 to 30mm canon, have the capability of rapidly taking out FAC’s.  The only defense these FAC’s have are their large numbers. The tactic requires that the enemy defense is to be overwhelmed by presenting more targets then the enemy ship can engage. That way, several ships can get close enough to fire their weapons and try to disable the enemy ship.

The surviving FAC’s then have to retreat, while under enemy fire until the distance become too great. One can see that this is a war of attrition in which more FAC’s will be destroyed then conventional enemy ships. Iran’s strategy of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz only works as long as it has the numbers to keep forming new swarms of FAC’s to engage and deter enemy warships.

Suicide tactics change the game. FAC’s already have to close an enemy warship to engage them successfully. The retreating phase exposes the FAC’s longer to enemy fire. Iran will lose ships both in the attacking and in the retreating phases. By choosing for a suicide tactic, in which FAC’s explode themselves against an enemy warship, Iran is canceling the retreating phase. However, the FAC’s still have to overcome the distance between their normal firing distance and the enemy warships. As the FAC’s keep closing in they come under even more fire from machineguns and sailors armed with rifles. This means that more FAC’s can be stopped before one of them is capable of coming close enough before it can explode and do any damage. Iran thus is hoping by using a suicide tactic it still loses less FAC’s then during a conventional attack in which FAC’s have to return to base to form a new swarm.

The major question on everybody’s mind is if this suicide tactic will work and whether or not it allows for less boats to be taken out during such an attack compared with a conventional attack. As said above, the closer the FAC’s come, the more weapons that can be fired against them, decreasing their chances of surviving the attack run before they can explode.

One must never forget that a FAC doesn’t have to be destroyed. FAC’s are very small boats ranging from jetski’s to speedboats. They are very vulnerable and can be disabled with a couple well placed bullets.  A disabled FAC is no longer capable of closing the enemy warship and executing its suicide tactic.

Iran’s suicide tactic can work if it has the element of surprise, that is when the targeted warship is not prepared to defend against a swarm/suicide attack. Only in such a case can the Iranians hope to have enough time to close the distance before they are taken out the fight by increasing firepower thrown against them.

One such case would be a night attack. Iran’s FAC’s are small and mostly made of polymer. They are hard to detect on radar and are mostly spotted by look outs. The FAC’s however can carry small radars that allow them to detected US Navy warships early. In a night attack, lookouts will have a hard time to spot FAC’s early enough to allow the ship to react although night vision cameras or drones with infrared cameras can overcome these problems.

We thus can conclude that there is a certain military logic for using suicide tactics with FAC’s but the chances of success are low as a warship can throw a lot of extra firepower against a FAC once it is at a short range. Their best chance of success is a surprise attack before the enemy warship is capable of manning every machinegun and equipping every sailor with rifles to destroy or disable a FAC. Night time attacks would be the best choice as FAC’s are faster spotted visually then with radar. However night vision goggles and drones with infrared cameras can turn night into day and can help spot suicide attacks well in advance during the night.

An Iranian stealth submarine sinks before targeting a mock US carrier in an a naval exercise

In an earlier analysis I explained how Iran was building a mock up aircraft carrier to be used in future wargames to enhance the training of the Iranian Navy in damaging or sinking US aircraft carriers. This news article published on the DEBKA news site however proves that the Iranian Navy might not be as menancing as generally is believed:



A new Iranian Ghadir-class stealth mini-submarine, home-built with Chinese technology, recently sank near the Strait of Hormuz, while preparing for a Revolutionary Guards naval exercise to practice sinking or disabling a mock-up US aircraft carrier, DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report exclusively.

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Iran buidling an aircraft carrier

Iran managed to shock the world last weekend by announcing that they are building a replica of a US Navy aircraft carrier. The ship in question is a large barge remodeled to look like a Nimitz class aircraft carrier complete with hull number and mock up aircrafts. Several speculations about why Iran is building a replica of about 2/3th the size of a real Nimitz class carrier are being spread.

Iran's mock up carrier

Everybody agrees that this is not a functional model. First, Iran lacks the technology to build real aircraft carriers. Its air fleet of F-14 Tomcat planes can be deployed off an aircraft carrier but Iran lacks trained pilots or even reliable planes as economic sanctions against the regime makes it very difficult for Iran to keep its F-14 flying. And since this is a model built on a barge it lacks the propulsion system to propel this model at a great speed.

So if it is not a functioning ship, why does Iran build it? The main theory is that it is propaganda and that it can be used for two reasons. First to show the Iranian people that Iran can build big warships and second to use it as a movie set.

Iran constantly claims that it can build big warships although this is a lie for anybody with some knowledge about warships. Iran claims that it can build destroyers while in reality their biggest ships only rank as corvettes. So the only ones they are fooling are the Iranian population.

The use as a movie set makes sense. Building an aircraft carrier and then blowing it up in front of the camera’s makes for very good propaganda and will sure be effective to send a clear message, namely that Iran is determined to fight and sink US aircraft carriers.

But somehow many people tend to forget a third reason behind this project: training. Iran’s leaders are constantly threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz in response to US sanctions. They also know that the US Navy will use its full might to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran therefor must come up with the necessary tactics to defeat the US Navy to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. In the end, that means tactics to defeat carrier battle groups.  A mock up aircraft carrier would make training more realistic, especially when the mock up is defended by corvettes to simulate the deployment of a carrier battle group. Iran’s navy would gain a lot of experience by making trainings as realistic as possible. In the end, a mock up carrier could enhance Iran’s tactics and make it a more formidable foe in the maritime theater.

source:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/21/iran-building-giant-fake-us-navy-aircraft-carrier/