Over the past years the People’s Liberation
Army-Navy (PLAN) of China has been increasing its presence in the Indian Ocean.
Given the competitive nature of relations between India and China as well as
India’s own ambition to be the sole dominant naval power in the Indian Ocean,
it is of vital interest to comprehend China’s ambitions in this region. With two
of the emerging superpowers capable of projecting power in the Indian Ocean as
well as the vital maritime trade routes situated in this area, any potential
conflict can have far reaching consequences.
The Area
The Indian Ocean forms the maritime bridge
between the EU and the Far East and many maritime trade routes pass through
this area. Dominating this area is the Indian subcontinent, thrusting into the
Indian Ocean. This places India in an optimum position to project power in all
directions. Many strategic choke points such as the Strait of Malacca or the
Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb can both be easily monitored or blocked by the Indian
Navy.
Because of its position and capabilities it
seems logical to entrust the Indian Navy with policing this area of the world
but as discussed below, China sees things differently.
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| Main position of maritime trade routes between China and Europe |
Chinese ambitions and concerns
The PLAN is a fast rising power that is
transforming into a blue water navy capable of projecting power far away.
Unlike the EU, which is only projecting its maritime power to the shore of
Somalia to combat piracy, China is seeking a more active role when it comes to
securing its maritime trade routes.
Piracy around the Horn of Africa prompted the
PLAN to join the international effort to combat this threat to maritime trade. At
the time this was a remarkable decision by China because it lacked the naval
experience to participate in an international operation. It did however show
that China is willing to go to great lengths to protect its vital trade routes,
not only for the trade with the EU but also its energy supply coming out the
Middle East. Over the past years the PLAN has become a constant factor in the
anti-piracy mission. The missions allowed the PLAN to gain valuable experience
in operating far away from home and helped in the transformation of the PLAN into
a blue water navy. At the same time China has been capable of bolstering ties
with several nations in the Indian Ocean to expand its economic and political
influence.
The string of pearls
Over the past years China has become involved
in several smaller countries around India. Its activities are mainly economical
such as building and expanding ports in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and
Pakistan. Although all these projects are economic in nature, mainly driven to
expand the trading capabilities of friendly nations, there is the possibility
that the new port facilities can be used as military naval bases to support a permanent
PLAN presence in the Indian Ocean. This is mainly a concern India has who views
the String of Pearls as a means to surround India with Chinese naval bases and challenge
India for control over the Indian Ocean. So far, none of these ports have
served as a permanent naval base but Chinese warships are using these ports to dock
and resupply while on mission in the Indian Ocean.
The big question what everybody is asking is
whether or not the String of Pearls will one day become a chain of military
bases on to what extend the PLAN will operate in the Indian Ocean.
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| String of Pearls: Chinese port building/expanding projects surounding India |
Future projection of Chinese ambitions
China is a rising superpower and it has the
tools to project power. The past years have seen an increase of PLAN naval
activity, not only within the First Island Chain but in the Indian Ocean as
well. Rival tensions between India and China will force the PLAN to operate in
the Indian Ocean and be able to confront the Indian Navy. From a Chinese point
of view, the geography of the Indian Ocean puts India in a main position to
block the Chinese trade lines running through the Indian Ocean. China depends
heavily on the import of energy and raw materials coming out of the Middle East
and Africa and is no doubt looking for means to secure these supply lines
against any kind of enemy intervention. As such, the Indian Ocean will be part of
China’s strategic policy for the future.
However China, and by extension the PLAN, are
caught on a two front war. Its rivalry with the United States forces China to
concentrate its resources in the western Pacific. Aggressive territorial claims
in the East and South China Seas put China in a confrontation with its
neighbors, almost all of them are backed by the United States. This all leaves only
little amount of military hardware available to be used in the Indian Ocean.
As such, the Chinese presence in the Indian
Ocean will be limited as the most modern ships such as aircraft carriers,
modern destroyers and nuclear submarines will all be needed to confront the
United States Navy and its pacific allies. The less modern and less advanced
ships will therefor make up the bulk of forces China will have available for
service in the Indian Ocean.
With only a limited force that can be deployed
in the Indian Ocean China will have only two options available to keep its
presence in the Indian Ocean as high as possible. A first option is looking for
allies. The navy of Pakistan seems like a good ally for China as it can bind a
large portion of the Indian Navy. Already the cooperation between both navies
is visible with China building frigates for Pakistan.
A second option for China is to have permanent
bases in the Indian Ocean. Transforming the String of Pearls from an economic
endeavor into a string of military bases allows China to more efficiently
protect its trade routes against any Indian intervention. At the same time,
fully equipped military bases with repair facilities allow Chinese warships to
operate over extended periods of time in the Indian Ocean before they are
forced to head back to Chinese naval bases located on the Chinese coast for
modernization or complicated repairs.
Although the String of Pearls are far from a
chain of military bases, any future development of these Chinese projects that
make up the string of pearls is worth noticing and analyzing in order to grasp
China’s intentions concerning its presence in the Indian Ocean.
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| If the String of Pearls one day develops into Chinese military bases then China would be in a favourable position to interfere with the naval movements of India |
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