The Russian Navy is since the collapse of the
Soviet Union a shadow of its former self. This situation has two reasons. First
the economic collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia made it impossible to find
the funds to operate a large navy. Navies are very expensive because they rely
heavily on technology to keep up with other navies. A second reason is that a
large amount of schooled technicians and skilled workers fled Russia to work
abroad. The loss of funds and a skilled workforce made it impossible to design
build and operate a modern navy. Only when President Vladimir Putin took office
in 2000 did the economy of Russia start to improve so that new ships could be
afforded.
The Russian Navy already suffered badly in the
decade after the Soviet Union. All of its ships were leftovers from the Soviet
Union and even maintaining a small portion of the former Soviet Union was
difficult. As such the Russian Navy was
falling far behind against its main NATO adversaries. Due to poor maintenance
ships started to break down often up to a level that every Russian naval task
force in the past years has been accompanied by an ocean going tug to tow the
vessels to a shipyard in case of a breakdown at sea.
Russia still wants to claim its place as a
superpower with global reach and in order to accomplish that it needs a strong
navy. Under the Putin regime several plans were made to rebuild the Russian
Navy but progress has been very slow. At the moment Russia is however capable
of building modern corvettes and frigates to replace to old Soviet build ships.
What Russia still lacks is the capability to build anything bigger than a
frigate. Already the decay of the Russian Navy in the 1990s and the slow
build-up of a new modern navy are showing its signs.
The large surface combatants of the Russian
Navy are starting to get too old and become too unreliable to be operational
for much longer. Russia’s only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, is very
prone to break downs and is currently being modernized in Severodvinsk. This
will most likely be her last modernization program before Russia is forced to
deactivate her. The same story is becoming true for Russia’s cruisers. The
cruisers of the Kirov and Slava class are still in a decent condition and can
remain operational for the next several years, depending on how good they can
be maintained. There are still unexpected events that can change this prospect.
Recently the Russian cruiser Kerch caught fire in the port of Sevastopol and
the damage was too big to be repaired. As a result Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is
currently without an operational cruiser as the Slava class cruiser Moskva is
also undergoing maintenance.
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| Kerch class cruiser |
As stated earlier, Russia lacks the know how to
build large surface combatants and the aging ships it has now will not be
replaced any time soon. Russia is already trying to minimize the impact. It
recently started to modernise the Kirov class cruiser Admiral Nakhinov. Build
in 1983 it was placed out of commission in 1992. Ever since then the cruiser
has been placed in reserve. Throughout the past decade there were several plans
to modernise the Admiral Nakhinov but these programs were all terminated by the
lack of funds and other priorities. In January 2014 the modernisation of the
Admiral Nakhinov finally started and she is now planned to join the fleet in
2018.
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| Admiral Nakhinov at the Sevmash naval yard |
The biggest attempt so far to acquire the
know-how that is required to build large surface combatants was the deal with
France to build Mistral class amphibious landing ships. France took the lead in
building the first two ships while subsections would be built in Russia and
assembled in France. There was the option of building two more Mistral class
ships in Russia with the assistance of France. The situation in Eastern Ukraine
and Russian support for the pro-Russian separatists forced France to cancel
this deal. It is unclear what kind of level of expertise and know-how was
transferred to Russia but it is most likely to be minimal. Russia would still
need the assistance of France to build two Mistral class ships at Russian
shipyards.
The failure of the Mistral deal leaves Russia
without the transfer it badly needs to rebuild its navy. Russia does however plan
to have a modern ocean going fleet in 2050 so it still has a 35 year window to
organize its ship building capabilities. However Russia lacks currently the
know how to build cruisers, let alone new aircraft carriers capable to rival
their US counterparts. Designs for new destroyers still remain on the drawing
boards. At the immediate future we expect Russia to still be able to operate
its last remaining large surface combatants for the next 5 to 10 years but
afterwards it will only have a nay that consists of corvettes and frigates.
This would reduce the Russian Navy to a green water navy with a main focus on
coastal defence and operating up to 200 nautical miles from its coast. This
falls short of a new blue water navy with a global reach that is envisioned.
Russia does have options available to get the
necessary know-how to build large warships. India is currently building its own
aircraft carriers. Russia and India already have a big history over the past
decade on cooperating together to build new ships and weapon systems. Russia
build the 6 Talwar class frigates for the Indian Navy and both countries worked
together to develop the BrahMos anti-ship cruise missile. Russia also
modernised the old aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov for the Indian Navy. The
progress on the modernisation of the Admiral Gorshkov shows how bad Russia is
in building, maintaining and modernizing large warships. The project was
plagued with cost overruns and delays.
Another source of knowledge and expertise could
be China. The Chinese Navy (PLAN) is making a transition from green water to a
blue water navy. It already operates one carrier, the Liaoning, and is building
two to three more of these carriers. China is also developing a new destroyer,
the Type 055, which resembles a US Navy Arleigh Burke class destroyer although
the Type 055 is in size more a cruiser then a destroyer when one looks at the
tonnage. China also develops amphibious landing ships. In all, China is
developing its shipbuilding know-how and since both China and Russia are allies
under the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) it could transfer this
technology to Russia.
Russia is still able to keep up in building
modern submarines. Despite a decade long gap in which no new submarines were
build, except for projects already started in the last days of the Soviet
Union, Russia still knows how to build modern submarines. The nuclear missile
submarines of the Borei class are good vessels. Russia’s newest attack
submarine, the Severodvinsk, of the Graney class is an improvement over the
Akula II class submarines despite the fact that the project was started in
1993. The second submarine of this class, the Kazan, will no doubt be even a
better version as it incorporates new weapon systems.
Just as with the surface fleet, Russia’s
submarine fleet is nearing the end of its capabilities. The new submarines are
not being built to expand the submarine fleet but to preserve the combat
capabilities it has right now.
Conclusion
Even though in the past years we have witnessed
a strong Russian Navy operating at the high seas there is the reality that the
last large surface combatants of the Russian Navy are at the end of their
limits and will be placed out of service in the very near future. The Admiral
Kuznetsov aircraft carrier is undergoing what will most likely be its last
modernisation and operational period. The Admiral Nakhinov cruiser will be
modernised and operational in the 2020-2030 timeframe but one modernised
cruiser will not be enough, especially if the other cruisers of the Kirov and
Slava classes are nearing the end of their operational lifetimes.
Russia is in dire need for the know-how of
building large surface combatants but it is unlikely that it will get it from
western shipyards. India and China are other candidates for the transfer of
this know-how. Given how difficult it is for India to build an aircraft carrier
and the fact that the country still hasn’t built cruisers and destroyers it
seems more likely that China will be the source of this knowledge. China already
builds modern frigates, amphibious landing ships and aircraft carriers. It also
started to develop the Type 055 destroyer, another type of surface combatant
that Russia hasn’t been able to build.
Although Russia is still able to operate a
decent blue water navy this capability will end in the near future. Given the
fact that Russia is running behind in shipbuilding capabilities the near future
will see the Russian Navy to regress into a green water navy of corvettes and
frigates.
